We propose to build a cross-disciplinary task force at CAS, comprising top international scholars from the two fields of statistics methodology and peace-and-conflict research. Core CAS Fellows will come from the statistics groups of UiO, from PRIO, and from our international network.

The aim is to delve deeper into the many quantitative sides of armed conflict, developing relevant statistical methods for testing stability, pin-pointing critical junctures when such have occurred, and to better understand the underlying mechanisms. Themes include better understanding of and finding explanations for the power-law tail behaviour of violence data; examining the 'waiting times' behaviour of times elapsed between conflicts; and modelling the processes leading from war to peace.