Predicting conflicts and humanitarian impacts

Forecasting conflict intensity is a challenging exercise. Yet, it can save lives by enabling early warning systems. With the goal of improving the accuracy and certainty of forecasts, Håvard Hegre and the VIEWS team is launching a new prediction challenge.

VIEWS banner. Image: PRIO

As well as leading the Stability and Change project at CAS together with Nils Lid Hjort (UiO), Håvard is directing a research collaboration between Peace Research Institute Oslo (PRIO) and Uppsala University, titled Violence & Impacts Early-Warning System (VIEWS).

While at CAS, Håvard has been working with fellows Paola Vesco and Michael Colaresi on the 2023/2024 VIEWS Prediction competition.

The target of the competition is to predict the number of fatalities in armed conflicts. The VIEWS team is inviting research teams interested in forecasting models and in the prediction of armed conflict to submit their abstracts by 1 June.

This initiative will enable better anticipation of conflict and ultimately help to minimise the impact of war on people's lives.



Published 11 May 2023, 12:26 | Last edited 11 May 2023, 1:36