2022/2023

Stability and Change

Social Sciences

Principal investigators

Håvard Hegre

Professor
Peace Research Institute Oslo (PRIO)
Year at CAS

Nils Lid Hjort

Professor
University of Oslo (UiO)
Year at CAS

Abstract

The Stability and Change project aimed at and succeeded in fruitfully bringing together core groups of international top-level scholars from two different fields – those of (a) peace-and-conflict research, with associated themes from political science, and (b) methodological and applied statistics. Themes of clear shared interest for (a) and (b) include (i) modelling and analysis of of armed conflict, taking the special statistical features of violence data into account; (ii) unravelling key patterns which lead to higher risk for escalation, building upon relevant time series of violence and influential covariates; (iii) modelling, estimating, and understanding the heavy-tailed power-law distributions prevalent with violence data; (iv) how to combine information from partly very different data sources; (v) identification of trends and changepoints, e.g. regarding democracies and consequences thereof; (vi) how to count the not yet counted (as in casualties in wars); and (vii) predicting future levels of violence, along with adequate assessment of uncertainty.

Fellows

Bear Braumoeller

Professor
Ohio State University
Year at CAS

Aaron Clauset

Professor
University of Colorado, Boulder
Year at CAS

Michael Colaresi

Professor
University of Pittsburgh
Year at CAS

Mihai Croicu

PhD Candidate
Uppsala University
Year at CAS

Céline Cunen

Senior Researcher
Norwegian Computing Center
Year at CAS

James E. Dale

Programmer
Uppsala University
Year at CAS

Idris Eckley

Professor
Lancaster University
Year at CAS
profile image illustration

Kristian Skrede Gleditsch

Professor
University of Essex
Year at CAS

Bethany Lacina

Associate Professor
University of Rochester
Year at CAS

David Randahl

Postdoctoral Fellow
Uppsala University
Year at CAS

Paola Vesco

Researcher
Uppsala University
Year at CAS

Jonathan Williams

Assistant Professor
North Carolina State University
Year at CAS

News

Forecasting conflict intensity is a challenging exercise. Yet, it can save lives by enabling early warning systems. With the goal of improving the accuracy and certainty of forecasts, Håvard Hegre and the VIEWS team is launching a new prediction challenge.

We asked Senior Researcher at PRIO, Håvard Mokleiv Nygård, and Professor of Statistics and Data Analysis at UiO, Nils Lid Hjort, what their project Stability and Change is about.