Prediction with Uncertainty

The CAS project Stability and Change is hosting a workshop in the Turret Room at CAS.


For invited guests only.




9:40 - Arrival with coffee and tea

10:00 - Håvard Hegre: Welcome and Introductions

10:10 - Håvard Hegre: Prediction with Uncertainty: A Competition

10:45 - Jonas Vestby: Why should we care about prediction uncertainties in conflict forecasting?

11:25 - Break

11:30 - Martin Jullum: The actual, current electricity price: With uncertainty

12:00 - Lunch

12:45 - Paola Vesco: Estimating and assessing measurement uncertainty in conflict impact predictions

13:30 - Jonathan Williams &Anders Hjort: Introduction to conformal-based uncertainty quantification and applications to automated valuation models

14:10 - The Red Cross White Bus Tour

14:30 - Céline Cunen: Combining probabilistic forecasts for survival time: The time-to-frost project



9:40 - Arrival with coffee and tea

10:05 - Nils Lid Hjort: Prediction and Confidence

10:40 - Mihai Crociu: Known Geographic Imprecision in Event Data and an Imputation Method to Address it

11:20 - Break

11:30 - Aliaksandr Hubin: Latent Binary Bayesian Neural Networks

12:00 - Lunch

12:40 - David Randahl: Parametric and non-parametric measures of uncertainty of predictions

13:25 - Gudmund Hermansen: Predicting with count time series

13:55 - Break

14:00 - Knut Are Aastveit: Central bank short-term forecasting